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Latest Blog  


By Christopher Lemieux 14 Jun, 2019
US/CN 10-Year Rate Differential (pink); DXY (yellow)
In this installment of Charts to Ponder, we look at a rate differential charts and something even Luke Gromen would appreciate.
The U.S./Chinese 10-Year rate differential has been a chart I've posted before. It's a key differential when monitoring the health of DXY strength, but the positive feedback pricing in the next move by the Fed has caused the differential to flatten further to levels last seen in early-2018.
Considering the differential's lead time and the monthly rejection at 98.15. The near-term range for the dollar is widening, 98.66/96.44.
By Carol Harmer 30 May, 2019
S&P up slightly from last nights close pre open...we had quite a good recovery off the 2766 lows and therefore
we have a really good chance of filling that opening gap eft from yesterday and this is up at 2801/02..Also if we
open here we are going to be trading above the DP @ 2780..
That 200 day M/A was clipped yesterday, but we soon climbed back above here and the close above here I think
is quite significant...Now the medium/long term view remains the same...I think we are on rocky ground on ral-
lies...but there needs to be a shift in momentum in traders minds....Since 2009 everyone has made money buy-
ing dips...It is hard to get out of a 10 year cycle mindset...but where you look back historically on the S&P given
how far we have travelled since 2016 a substantial move lower still cannot be ruled out...Remember the yearly
lows are at 2444 on 3rd Jan....This is 100 pts higher than the lows of Dec @ 2346....so you can see what we are
up against...The last 18 months in S&P have been up and down...Now if you look at this on the monthly charts,
change of trend markets have this typical wild ranges....we certainly have seen that since Jan 2018...We have
made new ATHs, but not sustainable...However I think also that short term we would play this from the long
side....at east trying to get it back to 2800/2 gaps..
This will be the decider...we stay below here, we go lower...we break above we are looking at 2821 to possibly
2832 before sellers come bac into the market....
By Carol Harmer 29 May, 2019
S&P did not have a great day yesterday closing on the lows....and overnight...more declines with lows seen at
2781...Now although the S&P looks sick...and it does...usually markets do not go down in a straight line...so there
is very good support at 2776/2773...This is made up of Pivot supports, Fib supports...chart support...and also im-
portantly the 200 day M/A...
So although I am most def a seller of stock markets I do think that we will get a retracement and be able to en-
ter this market at better levels....It has broken 2800 overnight...we need to see if Wall St allows it to lose ground
to 2775/73 first...or gives it a slap on the wrist and drives it towards last nights close...All med term timeframes
are bearish...and point to note is that the mighty monthly turned bearish this month...so its worth thinking about
this as this is where the “ real “ market is thinking...Do they leap out of stock markets and into
what...currencies...no...Gold...bit dodgy at the moment...so we are back to the $...The $Index has struggled to
break 9825/35....and this really is what we need to do...currently we are below 98.00 but that is having no im-
pact on the currencies at the moment....I think this is a $ strength move...and also....I do hate saying this, but
there has undeniably been a interest in Bitcoin and we have seen this move up from 4000 to 8700...and this has
happened since the S&P and the rest of the stock markets have lost ground....So this is going to be one to
watch...especially as there is now a Futures equivalent thus is it more regulated....Now if we cannot make a break
higher and lose 2770 there will be a lot of buyers running for cover and 2750/48 would be the first target.
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